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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via BWI, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PBI 07:25 → BWI 09:50WN 3189 1h 50m Baltimore BWI 11:40 → SJC 14:32WN 3400 10h 07m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:50 → ATL 14:48DL 1527 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 02m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 54m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → PBI 07:05 → DFW 09:19AA 1220 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:10 → SJC 14:07AA 2834 10h 02m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 11:30 → BNA 12:50WN 4599 2h 15m Nashville BNA 15:05 → SJC 17:40WN 674 9h 10m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → PBI 14:14 → DFW 16:28AA 2276 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:13 → SJC 22:13AA 364 10h 59m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → PBI 15:58 → ORD 18:32UA 312 1h 26m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 9h 45m 82% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON