tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 425 at 07:29, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 425 Alaska PDX 07:29 ABQ 11:17 6% 2% 0.6% no record
AS 2268 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 07:01 ABQ 10:57 6% 1% 0.3% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 10:01 → ABQ 11:45DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest 5h 00m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 1h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 14:10 → ABQ 15:54DL 3820 · flown by SkyWest 5h 09m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 03m San Francisco SFO 09:04 → ABQ 12:44UA 5401 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 07:55WN 4666 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → ABQ 12:30WN 106 6h 10m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 96% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 3h 35m Las Vegas LAS 10:45 → ABQ 13:20WN 2175 7h 20m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:22 → ABQ 12:49UA 476 6h 49m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 18:11 → ABQ 19:55DL 730 7h 09m 94% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 11:54 → DFW 17:49AA 2287 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → ABQ 19:39AA 3659 · flown by Envoy 6h 45m 73% 52%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 15:15 → DAL 21:00WN 1577 50m Dallas DAL 21:50 → ABQ 22:40WN 1255 6h 25m 71% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON