tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:35 am at Portland)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 26% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1370 Alaska Flight history → PDX 17:39 AUS 23:49 19% 5% 0.6% 86%
AS 540 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 AUS 16:38 40% 11% 0.5% 86%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 10:46 → ORD 17:00UA 1641 2h 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312 10h 08m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → AUS 22:25DL 2749 8h 39m 97% 78%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 11:50 → MDW 17:45WN 3202 3h 55m Chicago MDW 21:40 → AUS 00:26 +1WN 2834 10h 36m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:58 → SFO 15:10UA 751 2h 11m San Francisco SFO 17:21 → AUS 23:04UA 2332 8h 06m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:14 → SFO 15:05UA 2279 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 18:27 → AUS 00:13 +1UA 2126 8h 59m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 36m San Francisco SFO 08:37 → AUS 14:32UA 1107 7h 17m 99% 77%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 11:00 → DEN 14:30WN 1658 2h 16m Denver DEN 16:46 → AUS 19:58WN 1764 6h 58m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PDX 15:15 → DAL 21:00WN 1577 55m Dallas DAL 21:55 → AUS 23:05WN 4887 5h 50m 69% 49%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:09 → SEA 08:06AS 427 59m Seattle SEA 09:05 → AUS 15:14AS 422 6h 05m 72% 42%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 13:05 → SAN 15:30WN 2809 50m San Diego SAN 16:20 → AUS 21:15WN 3476 6h 10m 26% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON