Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:03 am at Portland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 1376 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	BNA 17:00	29%	7%	0.3%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BNA 13:31UA 355	6h 31m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 52m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:55 → DTW 19:04DL 2171	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126	8h 20m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	8h 40m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344	1h 02m Las Vegas	LAS 08:12 → BNA 13:46WN 646	6h 46m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	PDX 07:25 → SJC 09:15WN 3209	3h 50m San Jose	SJC 13:05 → BNA 19:22WN 1936	9h 57m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 12:23 → SEA 13:34DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	9h 31m	100%	81%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	1h 26m Denver	DEN 13:50 → BNA 17:34UA 1109	6h 44m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:30AS 3408 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 17:31 → BNA 23:59AS 416	6h 29m	72%	55%
Delta Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	6h 24m	64%	52%
American Details →	PDX 14:16 → DFW 20:03AA 2496	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:51 → BNA 22:47AA 3230	6h 31m	72%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON