Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 3407 PDX 07:04 → BOI 09:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1361 PDX 17:54 → BOI 20:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3407 SkyWest	PDX 07:04	BOI 09:31	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 329 Alaska	PDX 10:46	BOI 13:08	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 447 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:39	BOI 00:01	14%	3%	0.6%	87%
AS 342 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:58	BOI 17:16	16%	3%	0.5%	87%
AS 1524 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:30	BOI 23:48	18%	3%	0.6%	71%
AS 1361 Alaska	PDX 17:54	BOI 20:15	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 2161 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:00	BOI 09:19	2%	0%	1.9%	98%
AS 2089 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:30	BOI 12:49	4%	1%	0.0%	96%
AS 2104 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:31	BOI 19:48	29%	10%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON