Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Portland); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44% (calm day: 29%). Best bet: Delta via Seattle, leaving 20:44, 50% on time.

Nonstops today


AS 436 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:56	BOS 06:20	39%	9%	1.0%	80%worse than usual
B6 96 JetBlue Flight history →	PDX 23:27	BOS 07:48	47%	14%	0.8%	65%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 18:03 → SFO 19:53UA 1656	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 23:05 → BOS 08:01 +1UA 1665	10h 58m	100%	72%
American Details →	PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12AA 2986	3h 33m Phoenix	PHX 21:45 → BOS 05:45 +1AA 2701	11h 14m	93%	63%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00DL 2551	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 21:00 → BOS 05:30 +1DL 507	8h 53m	79%	55%
Delta Details →	PDX 20:44 → SEA 21:56DL 3923 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → BOS 07:35 +1DL 473	7h 51m	88%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON