Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1384 PDX 10:49 → BUR 13:13 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 559 PDX 17:57 → BUR 20:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1384 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:49	BUR 13:13	10%	2%	0.7%	90%
AS 318 Alaska	PDX 10:48	BUR 13:11	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1386 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:55	BUR 17:13	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
AS 1322 Alaska	PDX 07:01	BUR 09:26	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 559 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:57	BUR 20:18	16%	4%	0.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON