tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 374 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:12 BWI 15:16 11% 2% 0.6% 94%
WN 3194 Southwest Flight history → PDX 21:20 BWI 05:15 15% 4% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357 7h 09m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 27m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 15m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 11:50 → MDW 17:45WN 3202 3h 05m Chicago MDW 20:50 → BWI 23:50WN 2746 9h 00m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 9h 42m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:10UA 780 1h 30m Houston IAH 07:40 → BWI 11:47UA 604 8h 39m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 27m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → PDX 11:26 → ORD 17:42AA 2284 3h 43m Chicago ORD 21:25 → BWI 00:33 +1AA 4663 · flown by Republic 10h 07m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:55 → DTW 19:04DL 2171 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715 8h 23m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon 1h 03m Seattle SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781 7h 03m 58% 49%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:06 → SEA 08:05AS 427 58m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 6h 58m 52% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON