Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1577 at 15:15, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1577 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 15:15	DAL 21:00	22%	6%	0.5%	30%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PDX 05:20 → PHX 07:55WN 4666	1h 11m Phoenix	PHX 09:06 → DAL 13:34WN 3375	6h 14m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	PDX 11:50 → MDW 17:45WN 3202	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 20:40 → DAL 22:55WN 1005	9h 05m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	PDX 06:00 → MDW 11:50WN 1148	2h 45m Chicago	MDW 14:35 → DAL 16:57WN 2865	8h 57m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344	1h 53m Las Vegas	LAS 09:03 → DAL 13:43WN 2273	6h 43m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	PDX 12:15 → SMF 13:45WN 3212	3h 40m Sacramento	SMF 17:25 → DAL 22:50WN 3772	8h 35m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	PDX 07:25 → SJC 09:15WN 3209	2h 25m San Jose	SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965	7h 40m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	PDX 07:30 → DEN 11:00WN 4099	1h 53m Denver	DEN 12:53 → DAL 15:51WN 4758	6h 21m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	PDX 09:15 → PHX 11:50WN 3207	3h 00m Phoenix	PHX 14:50 → DAL 19:15WN 1937	8h 00m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON