tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:34 am at Portland); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:46, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415 3h 29m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 10m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → PDX 11:26 → ORD 17:42AA 2284 3h 21m Chicago ORD 21:03 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514 9h 48m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → PDX 10:46 → ORD 17:00UA 1641 2h 45m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 9h 08m 95% 71%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 11:50 → MDW 17:45WN 3202 3h 00m Chicago MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406 8h 54m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → PDX 11:54 → DFW 17:49AA 2287 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 9h 05m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 9h 15m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:35 → SFO 10:25UA 1596 3h 53m San Francisco SFO 14:18 → DCA 22:30UA 2386 10h 55m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:55 → DTW 19:04DL 2171 2h 20m Detroit DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073 8h 04m 99% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON