Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1870 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1870 PDX 06:20 → DEN 09:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3198 PDX 17:35 → DEN 21:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1870 Southwest	PDX 06:20	DEN 09:55	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 459 United Flight history →	PDX 05:00	DEN 08:31	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2375 United Flight history →	PDX 08:50	DEN 12:24	6%	3%	0.6%	97%
WN 4501 Southwest	PDX 07:40	DEN 11:15	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2793 United Flight history →	PDX 11:05	DEN 14:43	8%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 4099 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 07:30	DEN 11:00	8%	2%	0.4%	96%
AS 401 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:20	DEN 11:03	9%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 1429 United	PDX 10:40	DEN 14:15	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1411 United Flight history →	PDX 12:50	DEN 16:28	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:48	DEN 14:21	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 2334 United Flight history →	PDX 18:50	DEN 22:29	12%	6%	0.6%	90%
WN 1658 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 11:00	DEN 14:30	14%	3%	0.4%	76%
F9 1790 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 12:20	DEN 16:03	14%	5%	0.7%	82%
WN 3313 Southwest	PDX 12:51	DEN 16:26	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 1627 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 18:04	DEN 21:40	16%	5%	0.5%	69%
UA 1787 United Flight history →	PDX 16:15	DEN 19:51	16%	6%	0.6%	85%
OO 3145 SkyWest	PDX 14:32	DEN 18:12	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3199 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 19:40	DEN 23:10	19%	7%	0.5%	45%
WN 3314 Southwest	PDX 14:35	DEN 18:12	20%	5%	0.4%	no record
AS 1809 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:30	DEN 18:09	22%	5%	0.6%	67%
WN 2519 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 14:45	DEN 18:20	22%	5%	0.4%	51%
WN 3198 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 17:35	DEN 21:00	22%	7%	0.4%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON