Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2216 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2216 PDX 06:39 → DFW 12:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2286 PDX 13:34 → DFW 19:30 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2216 American Flight history →	PDX 06:39	DFW 12:28	9%	5%	2.7%	89%
AS 539 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 06:58	DFW 12:42	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 371 American Flight history →	PDX 06:36	DFW 12:30	11%	6%	2.1%	85%
AA 997 American	PDX 05:26	DFW 11:21	11%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 982 American Flight history →	PDX 05:07	DFW 10:57	11%	6%	1.0%	83%
AA 1460 American Flight history →	PDX 00:45	DFW 06:33	13%	7%	0.8%	88%
AA 1538 American	PDX 07:28	DFW 13:15	16%	6%	3.0%	no record
AS 392 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	DFW 16:42	17%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2283 American Flight history →	PDX 23:41	DFW 05:28	23%	8%	1.9%	62%
AA 2287 American Flight history →	PDX 11:54	DFW 17:49	25%	10%	2.1%	70%
AA 2655 American Flight history →	PDX 11:56	DFW 17:44	25%	10%	2.1%	76%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	PDX 14:17	DFW 20:05	26%	10%	2.1%	74%
AA 2286 American Flight history →	PDX 13:34	DFW 19:30	27%	9%	2.1%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PDX 11:05 → DEN 14:43UA 2793	57m Denver	DEN 15:40 → DFW 18:41UA 2230	5h 36m	89%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON