Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3043 PDX 21:30 → EUG 22:29 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 3042 PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3043 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 21:30	EUG 22:29	14%	5%	1.2%	94%
AS 3063 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:59	EUG 11:57	18%	7%	1.0%	89%
OO 3006 SkyWest	PDX 11:15	EUG 12:14	18%	7%	1.0%	no record
AS 3042 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:30	EUG 15:23	21%	5%	0.7%	88%
AS 2088 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:40	EUG 22:28	19%	8%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON