Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 1631 at 21:31 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day AS 1631 PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1398 PDX 14:51 → EWR 22:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1631 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:31	EWR 05:59	14%	3%	0.7%	94%
AS 294 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:40	EWR 16:05	15%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 2359 United Flight history →	PDX 10:33	EWR 18:51	23%	9%	0.6%	84%
UA 1802 United Flight history →	PDX 22:52	EWR 07:06	25%	6%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
UA 1701 United	PDX 10:54	EWR 19:21	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 1398 Alaska	PDX 14:51	EWR 22:55	28%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 16m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	7h 11m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	1h 12m Seattle	SEA 07:05 → EWR 15:31AS 239	7h 31m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON