Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:28 am at Portland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3285 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 15:08	FAT 17:05	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
AS 3024 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 18:58	FAT 20:56	22%	7%	0.6%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest	6h 02m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 09:35 → FAT 10:55WN 1423	5h 55m	98%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 19m San Francisco	SFO 08:20 → FAT 09:39UA 5942 · flown by SkyWest	4h 24m	98%	84%
American Details →	PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658	2h 31m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → FAT 12:24AA 2396	7h 04m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	PDX 16:25 → LAS 18:40WN 4732	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → FAT 23:36WN 779	7h 11m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	PDX 18:00 → LAS 20:15WN 2256	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → FAT 00:10 +1WN 407	6h 10m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 17:25 → FAT 19:36AS 393	5h 48m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:30AS 3408 · flown by SkyWest	55m Seattle	SEA 17:25 → FAT 19:36AS 393	4h 06m	68%	51%
American Details →	PDX 17:28 → PHX 20:10AA 2288	1h 22m Phoenix	PHX 21:32 → FAT 23:08AA 3174	5h 40m	75%	43%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:46 → SAN 13:27AS 1394	52m San Diego	SAN 14:19 → FAT 15:42AS 3389 · flown by SkyWest	4h 56m	39%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON