Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 1356 PDX 21:50 → GEG 22:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 250 PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 1356 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:50	GEG 22:59	15%	5%	0.7%	85%
AS 743 Alaska	PDX 14:28	GEG 15:41	17%	4%	0.3%	no record
AS 452 Alaska	PDX 17:31	GEG 18:44	17%	5%	0.3%	no record
AS 3262 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:30	GEG 15:41	18%	5%	0.2%	100%worse than usual
AS 3052 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 17:30	GEG 18:44	21%	7%	0.2%	84%
AS 250 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	GEG 11:45	21%	4%	0.3%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON