Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2016 United Flight history →	PDX 08:21	IAD 16:41	10%	3%	0.8%	96%
UA 498 United Flight history →	PDX 23:30	IAD 07:32	13%	4%	0.8%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 18:03 → SFO 19:53UA 1656	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083	10h 27m	100%	84%
United Details →	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 14:55 → IAD 17:57UA 587	7h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	9h 04m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	7h 13m	96%	82%
United Details →	PDX 11:16 → SFO 13:07UA 1613	3h 27m San Francisco	SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453	10h 39m	100%	82%
United Details →	PDX 18:50 → DEN 22:29UA 2334	1h 30m Denver	DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924	7h 37m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:55 → DTW 19:04DL 2171	2h 34m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	8h 18m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21UA 1927	52m Houston	IAH 20:13 → IAD 00:05 +1UA 1968	8h 03m	69%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON