Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 462 PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1927 PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 462 United Flight history →	PDX 07:13	IAH 13:30	13%	3%	0.2%	92%
AS 1420 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:05	IAH 13:35	16%	3%	0.5%	84%
UA 1927 United Flight history →	PDX 13:02	IAH 19:21	18%	4%	0.2%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:29 → IAH 13:30DL 1532	5h 45m	92%	75%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 25m Denver	DEN 09:56 → IAH 13:18UA 2030	6h 18m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	6h 08m	89%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON