Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today G4 1604 PDX 12:20 → IDA 15:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3321 PDX 10:34 → IDA 13:21 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G4 1604 Allegiant	PDX 12:20	IDA 15:00	16%	7%	0.3%	no record
AS 3013 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:30	IDA 13:06	24%	10%	0.2%	85%
OO 3321 SkyWest	PDX 10:34	IDA 13:21	26%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON