Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: DL 451 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet today DL 451 PDX 07:05 → JFK 15:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 18 PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 451 Delta Flight history →	PDX 07:05	JFK 15:46	8%	3%	0.5%	93%
DL 2139 Delta Flight history →	PDX 22:40	JFK 06:55	10%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 336 Alaska	PDX 21:28	JFK 05:28	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 18 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:47	JFK 19:23	19%	4%	0.6%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 06m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	7h 17m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 06:59 → JFK 15:00AS 16	7h 00m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON