Today: WN 344 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet today WN 344 PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4732 PDX 16:25 → LAS 18:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 344 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 05:00	LAS 07:10	3%	1%	0.3%	92%
WN 1701 Southwest	PDX 05:22	LAS 07:01	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
AS 627 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:37	LAS 09:55	9%	3%	0.3%	89%
AS 1628 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 09:00	LAS 11:19	10%	3%	0.4%	92%
AS 1467 Alaska	PDX 07:33	LAS 09:49	11%	3%	0.3%	no record
AS 757 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAS 13:11	11%	4%	0.2%	85%
AS 1337 Alaska	PDX 09:05	LAS 11:22	11%	3%	0.3%	no record
AS 774 Alaska	PDX 20:55	LAS 23:08	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4672 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 10:35	LAS 12:45	13%	3%	0.2%	69%
AS 751 Alaska	PDX 12:37	LAS 14:53	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 531 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:50	LAS 20:12	15%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 4707 Southwest	PDX 11:00	LAS 13:16	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
AS 778 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:46	LAS 17:06	16%	4%	0.3%	84%
F9 1106 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 12:30	LAS 14:56	17%	6%	1.0%	71%
WN 4651 Southwest	PDX 19:50	LAS 22:05	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2256 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 18:00	LAS 20:15	19%	8%	0.5%	32%
WN 4732 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 16:25	LAS 18:40	21%	7%	0.2%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON