Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2947 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2947 PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 6189 PDX 17:08 → LAX 19:42 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2947 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:30	LAX 09:00	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
AS 581 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:37	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 6290 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:42	8%	5%	0.5%	85%
DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	PDX 10:53	LAX 13:18	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
AS 695 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAX 13:20	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2459 Delta Flight history →	PDX 20:30	LAX 23:00	11%	5%	0.6%	89%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:25	LAX 15:47	12%	5%	0.6%	91%
F9 4500 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 11:13	LAX 13:47	15%	9%	1.0%	84%
AS 713 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:39	LAX 17:06	16%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:00	16%	6%	0.6%	88%
AS 278 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:09	18%	6%	0.6%	87%
AS 1389 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:27	LAX 23:56	19%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 6189 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 17:08	LAX 19:42	20%	9%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON