Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:19 am at Portland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 300 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	MCO 15:49	24%	8%	0.6%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PDX 17:00 → PHX 19:40WN 1048	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508	10h 20m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	PDX 17:30 → SEA 18:33AS 430	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394	9h 46m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 46m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29AS 1312	3h 37m San Diego	SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 +1AS 707	11h 23m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00DL 2551	2h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 22:27 → MCO 06:25 +1DL 547	9h 48m	94%	78%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 39m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	PDX 20:44 → SEA 21:56DL 3923 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	7h 56m	91%	77%
United Details →	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 14:48 → MCO 18:39UA 2654	8h 39m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 17:40 → SAN 20:18AS 369	48m San Diego	SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 +1AS 707	8h 38m	55%	44%
Alaska Details →	PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon	54m Seattle	SEA 21:27 → MCO 05:48 +1AS 390	7h 10m	48%	39%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:09 → SEA 08:06AS 427	54m Seattle	SEA 09:00 → MCO 17:26AS 346	7h 17m	69%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON