Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3300 PDX 10:40 → MFR 11:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3348 PDX 21:42 → MFR 22:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:40	MFR 11:53	9%	4%	0.2%	92%
AS 3337 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:47	MFR 16:03	9%	3%	0.2%	85%
OO 3034 SkyWest	PDX 10:48	MFR 12:04	10%	3%	0.2%	no record
OO 3348 SkyWest	PDX 21:42	MFR 22:57	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2163 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:45	MFR 18:48	13%	7%	2.2%	87%
AS 2125 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:52	MFR 15:54	15%	3%	0.0%	85%
AS 2266 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 22:04	MFR 23:06	21%	6%	0.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON