Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2369 PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 332 PDX 11:47 → MSP 17:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2369 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:00	MSP 11:14	5%	2%	0.4%	97%
DL 2359 Delta Flight history →	PDX 00:33	MSP 05:49	8%	2%	0.3%	93%
DL 2167 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:45	MSP 19:03	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 661 Delta	PDX 11:39	MSP 17:02	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1661 Delta Flight history →	PDX 15:00	MSP 20:22	9%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 2415 Delta Flight history →	PDX 11:46	MSP 17:01	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 1429 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	MSP 15:58	11%	2%	0.6%	87%
AS 332 Alaska	PDX 11:47	MSP 17:07	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON