Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3189 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 2–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3189 PDX 06:00 → OAK 07:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3205 PDX 22:40 → OAK 00:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3189 Southwest	PDX 06:00	OAK 07:54	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 264 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 05:10	OAK 06:55	2%	1%	0.6%	96%
AS 3055 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 09:29	OAK 11:21	6%	5%	0.5%	96%
WN 4928 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 12:25	OAK 14:10	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
WN 3195 Southwest	PDX 13:10	OAK 15:03	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3205 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 22:40	OAK 00:30	15%	6%	0.6%	29%
AS 2082 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:33	OAK 19:23	2%	0%	0.0%	98%
AS 2036 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 19:54	OAK 21:41	10%	3%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON