Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:50 am at Portland); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 2456 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PDX 14:30	ONT 17:07	14%	9%	0.9%	86%
AS 534 Alaska	PDX 21:34	ONT 00:01	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	6h 34m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	PDX 10:00 → SMF 11:25WN 300	2h 35m Sacramento	SMF 14:00 → ONT 15:35WN 3949	5h 35m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	PDX 12:15 → SMF 13:45WN 3212	3h 45m Sacramento	SMF 17:30 → ONT 18:55WN 480	6h 40m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	PDX 18:00 → LAS 20:15WN 2256	2h 41m Las Vegas	LAS 22:56 → ONT 00:07 +1WN 4570	6h 07m	98%	73%
Southwest Details →	PDX 16:25 → LAS 18:40WN 4732	3h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 22:25 → ONT 23:35WN 2135	7h 10m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	PDX 17:20 → SJC 19:05WN 3210	1h 20m San Jose	SJC 20:25 → ONT 21:53WN 862	4h 33m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → ONT 22:52DL 3884 · flown by SkyWest	7h 22m	98%	69%
Southwest Details →	PDX 12:25 → OAK 14:10WN 4928	1h 10m Oakland	OAK 15:20 → ONT 16:54WN 2424	4h 29m	91%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PDX 19:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1238	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	4h 28m	67%	56%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:50 → SEA 18:59DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → ONT 22:52DL 3884 · flown by SkyWest	5h 02m	67%	47%
Delta Details →	PDX 12:23 → SEA 13:34DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest	56m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	4h 58m	55%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON