Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:12 pm at Portland); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46% (calm day: 16%). Best bet: Southwest via Oakland, leaving 12:25, 68% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PDX 12:25 → OAK 14:10WN 4928	3h 18m Oakland	OAK 17:28 → PAE 19:33WN 8506	7h 08m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264	2h 09m Santa Ana	SNA 19:28 → PAE 22:23AS 2116 · flown by Horizon	7h 35m	93%	60%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06AS 778	2h 44m Las Vegas	LAS 19:50 → PAE 22:30AS 366	7h 44m	93%	53%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:45 → PHX 17:29AS 731	1h 57m Phoenix	PHX 19:26 → PAE 22:25AS 514	7h 40m	100%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	1h 22m San Francisco	SFO 18:02 → PAE 20:14AS 2083 · flown by Horizon	5h 25m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON