Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 3409 PDX 22:01 → PSC 23:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3066 PDX 21:50 → PSC 22:44 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3409 SkyWest	PDX 22:01	PSC 23:08	13%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 3066 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 21:50	PSC 22:44	22%	7%	0.8%	86%
AS 2475 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:31	PSC 15:22	17%	4%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON