Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AS 2057 at 21:32, 20%.

Safest bet today AS 2057 PDX 21:32 → RDM 22:29 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest QX 2315 PDX 15:33 → RDM 15:54 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 2057 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PDX 21:32	RDM 22:29	20%	11%	1.3%	90%
QX 2420 Horizon	PDX 17:37	RDM 18:34	28%	14%	1.3%	no record
QX 2315 Horizon	PDX 15:33	RDM 15:54	30%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON