Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3353 PDX 07:00 → RNO 08:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 1616 PDX 17:55 → RNO 19:31 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3353 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 07:00	RNO 08:40	10%	3%	0.3%	98%
AS 485 Alaska	PDX 17:58	RNO 19:32	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1616 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:55	RNO 19:31	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
AS 2206 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 15:01	RNO 16:30	10%	2%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON