Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1896 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1896 PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 1393 PDX 17:43 → SFO 19:37 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1896 United Flight history →	PDX 05:15	SFO 07:01	8%	3%	0.3%	92%
UA 2818 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	SFO 08:56	11%	7%	0.6%	35%
UA 1939 United	PDX 08:56	SFO 11:06	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 751 United Flight history →	PDX 12:58	SFO 15:10	15%	10%	0.5%	43%
OO 5733 SkyWest	PDX 10:56	SFO 13:15	15%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	PDX 08:35	SFO 10:25	15%	8%	0.6%	56%
AS 1403 Alaska	PDX 10:45	SFO 12:40	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1445 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:42	SFO 12:39	15%	7%	0.6%	55%
UA 1613 United Flight history →	PDX 11:16	SFO 13:07	16%	10%	0.5%	38%
AS 526 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:19	SFO 09:16	16%	6%	0.6%	59%
UA 1145 United	PDX 15:18	SFO 17:30	18%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1656 United Flight history →	PDX 18:03	SFO 19:53	19%	12%	0.5%	33%
AS 236 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:49	SFO 16:40	19%	6%	0.6%	73%
AS 504 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:36	SFO 19:30	20%	7%	0.6%	59%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	PDX 13:14	SFO 15:05	21%	11%	0.5%	40%
AS 1393 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:43	SFO 19:37	21%	7%	0.6%	67%
AS 2112 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:45	SFO 23:36	36%	11%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON