Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1270 PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 3291 PDX 17:40 → SLC 20:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1270 Delta Flight history →	PDX 05:45	SLC 08:33	5%	2%	0.5%	98%
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	PDX 09:45	SLC 12:33	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
AS 3355 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:32	SLC 13:33	9%	5%	0.5%	84%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:15	SLC 16:07	9%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 1238 Delta Flight history →	PDX 19:20	SLC 22:13	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:14	SLC 20:06	11%	5%	0.7%	88%
AS 3120 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:30	SLC 17:29	13%	4%	0.5%	96%
OO 3288 SkyWest	PDX 14:32	SLC 17:33	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 3291 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 17:40	SLC 20:41	15%	5%	0.5%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON