Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1404 PDX 07:00 → SNA 09:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 574 PDX 17:30 → SNA 20:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1404 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	SNA 09:37	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
AS 518 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 19:59	SNA 22:30	10%	2%	0.7%	96%
AS 588 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:38	SNA 13:15	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
AS 264 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:48	SNA 17:19	14%	4%	0.6%	92%
AS 574 Alaska	PDX 17:30	SNA 20:02	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON