tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:05 am at Portland)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1635 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:49 STL 16:37 18% 4% 0.5% 82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → STL 10:42DL 1289 8h 09m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 15:10 → STL 16:48DL 1224 8h 48m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 1h 31m Las Vegas LAS 08:41 → STL 13:53WN 1409 6h 53m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 48m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PDX 06:07 → ORD 12:17AA 2933 2h 50m Chicago ORD 15:07 → STL 16:40AA 4537 · flown by Republic 8h 33m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609 7h 37m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:13UA 780 1h 47m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 7h 59m 96% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:30 → SMF 07:00WN 3211 3h 25m Sacramento SMF 10:25 → STL 16:05WN 920 8h 35m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21UA 1927 59m Houston IAH 20:20 → STL 22:43UA 1528 7h 41m 73% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON