Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3112 PDX 07:03 → STS 08:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3036 PDX 17:55 → STS 19:47 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3112 SkyWest	PDX 07:03	STS 08:55	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 3483 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:30	STS 16:15	15%	6%	0.8%	80%
AS 3115 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 21:45	STS 23:30	15%	5%	0.8%	90%
OO 3036 SkyWest	PDX 17:55	STS 19:47	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 2330 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:45	STS 12:26	8%	0%	0.0%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON