Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:40 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: one nonstop, OH 5259 at 22:42, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5259 PHL 22:42 → BDL 00:01 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OH 5259 PSA	PHL 22:42	BDL 00:01	26%	14%	1.2%	no record
AA 6035 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 12:51	BDL 14:11	15%	6%	1.5%	85%
AA 5857 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:45	BDL 19:06	33%	14%	6.0%	67%
AA 6107 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 19:44	BDL 21:22	41%	13%	6.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON