Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at Philadelphia); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: OH 5120 at 22:14 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42%.

Nonstops today


OH 5120 PSA	PHL 22:14	BGR 23:59	31%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 668 American Flight history →	PHL 19:55	BGR 21:54	42%	13%	0.5%	69%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 19:25 → DCA 20:41AA 5019 · flown by PSA	1h 23m Washington	DCA 22:04 → BGR 23:59AA 5436 · flown by PSA	4h 34m	71%	30%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON