Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:18 pm at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5402 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:05	BHM 23:40	30%	11%	0.7%	75%
AA 5357 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:49	BHM 22:24	33%	12%	0.6%	61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PHL 17:20 → MDW 18:30WN 2756	3h 45m Chicago	MDW 22:15 → BHM 00:05 +1WN 4470	7h 45m	95%	78%
American Details →	PHL 17:52 → MIA 20:46AA 3306	2h 10m Miami	MIA 22:56 → BHM 23:59AA 3427 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	89%	78%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 21:44 → BHM 21:40DL 2257	6h 32m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	6h 26m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	6h 45m	92%	74%
American Details →	PHL 17:40 → ORD 19:26AA 1012	2h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:29AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 49m	85%	73%
American Details →	PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → BHM 23:00AA 362	7h 05m	100%	72%
American Details →	PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:28AA 3012	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 20:58 → BHM 21:29AA 5205 · flown by PSA	6h 39m	97%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PHL 20:25 → BNA 21:50WN 3217	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 22:50 → BHM 23:50WN 4559	4h 25m	69%	46%
American Details →	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:10 → BHM 22:10AA 5267 · flown by PSA	6h 48m	63%	42%
American Details →	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → BHM 20:31AA 2384	6h 31m	56%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON