Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4858 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 4858 PHL 05:55 → BNA 07:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1989 PHL 19:38 → BNA 21:06 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4858 Southwest	PHL 05:55	BNA 07:06	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3215 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 09:00	BNA 10:05	15%	2%	0.2%	76%
WN 2755 Southwest	PHL 12:20	BNA 13:34	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1283 American	PHL 09:13	BNA 10:37	16%	5%	0.4%	no record
OH 5358 PSA	PHL 07:04	BNA 08:21	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 3216 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 14:00	BNA 15:10	19%	6%	0.7%	65%
WN 3217 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 20:25	BNA 21:50	22%	9%	0.7%	72%
AA 3221 American Flight history →	PHL 09:35	BNA 10:51	22%	6%	1.3%	86%
WN 3334 Southwest	PHL 20:15	BNA 21:32	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2265 American	PHL 13:40	BNA 14:57	30%	10%	1.8%	no record
AA 1506 American Flight history →	PHL 13:38	BNA 14:51	31%	9%	1.3%	70%
AA 5580 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:44	BNA 19:04	33%	9%	1.2%	70%
AA 2277 American Flight history →	PHL 21:30	BNA 22:46	33%	9%	1.3%	62%
OH 5340 PSA	PHL 17:38	BNA 18:58	33%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1505 American Flight history →	PHL 15:41	BNA 17:01	36%	9%	1.8%	60%
AA 1280 American Flight history →	PHL 15:41	BNA 16:59	37%	9%	1.6%	74%worse than usual
F9 1989 Frontier	PHL 19:38	BNA 21:06	42%	16%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON