Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:33 pm at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:00, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Columbia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 19:25 → ATL 21:42DL 1329	57m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	4h 18m	68%	52%
American Details →	PHL 17:40 → ORD 19:26AA 1012	48m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → CAE 23:19AA 4275 · flown by Envoy	5h 39m	40%	30%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON