Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:20 am at Philadelphia); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 33–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2134 PHL 22:12 → CHS 00:08 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5068 PHL 21:55 → CHS 23:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2134 American	PHL 22:12	CHS 00:08	33%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 1328 American	PHL 10:27	CHS 12:20	35%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2447 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	CHS 12:29	35%	8%	0.9%	72%
AA 2276 American	PHL 16:10	CHS 18:06	37%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 5068 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 21:55	CHS 23:55	37%	10%	2.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON