Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:34 am at Philadelphia); 8 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2573 at 15:50, 33%.

Safest bet today AA 2573 PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:53 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 4353 PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:46 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2573 American Flight history →	PHL 15:50	CLT 17:53	33%	11%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
AA 3030 American Flight history →	PHL 16:55	CLT 18:58	35%	11%	0.7%	72%
AA 1661 American Flight history →	PHL 19:35	CLT 21:29	37%	13%	0.6%	71%
AA 3012 American Flight history →	PHL 15:49	CLT 17:28	40%	11%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
AA 793 American Flight history →	PHL 13:49	CLT 15:45	40%	9%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
AA 2189 American	PHL 19:37	CLT 21:18	42%	13%	0.6%	no record
AA 1859 American Flight history →	PHL 11:56	CLT 13:36	43%	11%	0.9%	76%worse than usual
AA 2074 American	PHL 17:52	CLT 19:39	44%	12%	0.7%	no record
F9 4353 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:50	CLT 17:46	50%	23%	1.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON