Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:02 pm at Philadelphia); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5365 PHL 13:25 → CVG 15:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5534 PHL 17:40 → CVG 19:42 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5365 PSA	PHL 13:25	CVG 15:26	28%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 5583 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:40	CVG 21:53	31%	9%	0.7%	68%
AA 2987 American	PHL 16:31	CVG 18:21	31%	6%	0.4%	no record
OH 5337 PSA	PHL 18:19	CVG 20:27	33%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 5515 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:25	CVG 17:26	35%	10%	0.7%	64%
AA 5534 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:40	CVG 19:42	35%	9%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON