Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:49 am at Philadelphia)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 4437 Southwest	PHL 17:10	DAL 20:00	36%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 3218 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 18:30	DAL 21:00	39%	10%	0.7%	32%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664	1h 45m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	7h 40m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	PHL 06:05 → STL 07:25WN 3227	1h 05m St Louis	STL 08:30 → DAL 10:21WN 987	5h 16m	93%	87%
Southwest Details →	PHL 09:00 → BNA 10:05WN 3215	2h 15m Nashville	BNA 12:20 → DAL 14:15WN 5046	6h 15m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	PHL 11:20 → MDW 12:30WN 3224	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 15:55 → DAL 18:19WN 198	7h 59m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	PHL 08:00 → MDW 09:05WN 4202	3h 15m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 35m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	PHL 12:50 → MDW 13:50WN 4837	2h 30m Chicago	MDW 16:20 → DAL 18:35WN 2758	6h 45m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	7h 58m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	8h 14m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PHL 18:55 → MDW 20:20WN 3226	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 21:20 → DAL 23:41WN 2868	5h 46m	72%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON