Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 33–41% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5363 PHL 16:10 → DCA 17:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 5019 PHL 19:25 → DCA 20:41 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5363 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:10	DCA 17:20	33%	17%	1.3%	97%worse than usual
OH 5265 PSA	PHL 20:51	DCA 22:01	39%	19%	1.6%	no record
AA 5019 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:25	DCA 20:41	41%	21%	1.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON