Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:41 am at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Today: UA 1423 at 07:49 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet today UA 1423 PHL 07:49 → DEN 09:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2513 PHL 12:54 → DEN 15:08 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1423 United	PHL 07:49	DEN 09:57	13%	4%	0.1%	no record
AA 2282 American	PHL 09:10	DEN 11:32	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2307 United Flight history →	PHL 08:00	DEN 10:01	15%	4%	0.1%	81%
AA 3312 American Flight history →	PHL 09:35	DEN 11:56	15%	4%	0.2%	85%
AA 946 American	PHL 11:37	DEN 14:09	18%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 1537 United Flight history →	PHL 10:00	DEN 12:01	19%	4%	0.1%	79%
UA 2644 United Flight history →	PHL 16:14	DEN 18:25	25%	6%	0.1%	60%
AA 2878 American	PHL 19:58	DEN 22:04	33%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 2500 American Flight history →	PHL 20:03	DEN 22:25	33%	6%	1.3%	59%
WN 2505 Southwest	PHL 12:35	DEN 14:37	35%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 3220 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 12:35	DEN 14:30	37%	5%	0.2%	63%
AA 3158 American Flight history →	PHL 17:30	DEN 19:45	39%	6%	1.3%	64%
WN 2700 Southwest	PHL 17:15	DEN 19:17	39%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 3221 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 16:45	DEN 18:50	39%	7%	0.2%	33%
F9 3339 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:37	DEN 23:04	41%	14%	1.3%	67%
F9 2513 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 12:54	DEN 15:08	44%	24%	1.0%	72%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHL 06:05 → STL 07:25WN 3227	1h 10m St Louis	STL 08:35 → DEN 09:57WN 4062	5h 52m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	52m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 37m	91%	79%
Southwest Details →	PHL 08:00 → MDW 09:05WN 4202	50m Chicago	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	5h 30m	84%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON