Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:45 pm at Philadelphia); 11 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5418 PHL 22:19 → DTW 00:17 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest DL 1686 PHL 20:10 → DTW 22:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5418 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:19	DTW 00:17	25%	8%	0.6%	74%
AA 5169 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:04	DTW 23:59	28%	8%	0.5%	80%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	PHL 20:10	DTW 22:15	33%	6%	0.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON