Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:08 pm at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:32, 66% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	7h 14m	99%	66%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	7h 20m	94%	64%
American Details →	PHL 19:35 → CLT 21:29AA 1661	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 23:09 → ECP 23:55AA 5633 · flown by PSA	5h 20m	80%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	4h 23m	75%	45%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	4h 29m	64%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON