Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Philadelphia); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 33–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5274 PHL 16:22 → GRR 18:28 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest G4 3491 PHL 17:38 → GRR 19:43 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5274 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:22	GRR 18:28	33%	20%	1.6%	69%
AA 5493 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:35	GRR 21:41	33%	19%	1.5%	73%
G4 3491 Allegiant Flight history →	PHL 17:38	GRR 19:43	40%	24%	0.6%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON